Regional Relationships and Development Infrastructure

Blogging Question: Assuming you are a development strategist in a developing country. Characterize the country and its situation. On that basis, how might you design a network-based development policy?

Govt 541: Research Methods

Another class I really love is my Research Methods class. It is, more or less, a class on how to apply the scientific method to political research.  I’ve ready plenty of such research, but I’ve never actually attempted to present my own work in such a manner, so it’s actually an enlightening, and challenging, class.  Our assignment is to design a research proposal that could be submitted as a grant proposal, should we find such an opportunity.  Luckily, it is just the proposal, and we are not actually responsible for doing the required research or data analysis, because that would probably take up far more time than I will have while in grad school (or at least w out the income of a grant).  My proposal is to study government intervention into 4 sectors of the Ugandan economy, as outlined below:

Research Question:
What explains the variation in success of four products/sectors of the Ugandan economy?

Hypotheses:
Infrastructure and government investments favored one industry over the other.

Alternative Hypotheses:
•    Collapse or growth of world markets
•    Environmental conditions in Uganda
•    Political or conflict situations in Uganda and/or surrounding countries
•    Economy and infrastucture of neighbors

Dependent Variable:
Economic success within industry (possible measures include sustained growth, profitability, share of market, share of employment)

Explanatory Variables:
•    Transportation systems
•    Communications systems
•    Government or donor subsidies, tariffs and other protectionist measures
•    Relationships with neighbors (diplomatic or trade)

Cases: oil, coffee, cut flowers, tourism industries in Uganda

Research Method: Analysis of sectors, variation between and over time

Potential Problems:
•    Data availability – some sectors are only just now being rebuilt or built up
•    Identifying and controlling for alternative variables or hypotheses (culture, geography, history) – some control comes from limiting study to one country
•    Impact of regional development, infrastructure

This one pager and the accompanying presentation 2 weeks ago went very well and I got a lot of good suggestions and generally very positive feedback.  I’m considering actually doing some of the research for this (but only on one sector) as the paper for my African Development class, but I’m not sure yet.  I’ll continue to post the work I do here as it develops.

National Press Club Presents ‘Africa’s Daughters’

“Africa’s Daughters” and “Equilibrium City,” movies that take viewers far away and close to home, will be shown at 7 p.m. Monday, Aug. 3, as part of the NPC summer film series.

“Africa’s Daughters,” a film by broadcast journalist Natalie Halpern, captures the journey of two Ugandan girls with one big dream: to lift themselves and their families out of poverty. To do that they must challenge cultural traditions and graduate high school, something nearly impossible for most African girls. The half-hour film begins at 7 p.m., followed with a filmmaker question-and-answer session until 8 p.m.

“Equilibrium City” tells the story of Baltimore developer Jim Rouse and his vision to bring racial equality to America during the height of the civil rights era by building “a new kind of city,” which became Columbia, Md.

Told through the eyes of early residents like Michael Chabon (Pulitzer Prize-winning author and “Spiderman 2″ screenwriter), the film explores how despite death threats, Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination, and extreme racial unrest in the 1960s, Rouse built a city open to all Americans regardless of race, color, or creed. Columbia resident Josef Sawyer completed the film as his graduate thesis project while attending the University of California, Berkeley’s Graduate School of Journalism. The film starts at 8 p.m., with the Q&A ending at 9 p.m.

Free for all who attend. Reservations at 202-662-7501 or reservations@press.org .

Questions about the series may be directed to Press Club Events Committee members Matt Spangler at mbspangler@cox.net or Alan Bjerga at albjerga@hotmail.com .

$1 Billion to Save the World

I was watching Numb3rs the other night – the most recent one, involving the super computer (don’t know what the episode is called) – and in it some crazy/evil DARPA woman offers Charlie 5 years and unlimited resources to try to change/save the world.  This for some reason reminded me of the last couple of episodes of the West Wing, in which CJ is offered $1 billion or so to save the world.  When asked what she would do with the money, she replies, build roads in Africa, because transportation is key to supporting movement of goods, labor migration, and the spread of ideas – all of that good stuff that capitalism requires.  As a thought exercise, I started daydreaming about what I would do with $1 billion (not that it will ever happen).

I agree with CJ on the issue of transportation, and the use of government/NGO/IGO money to build the infrastructure.  I think entrepreneurs are the lifeblood of capitalism and economic growth, but most of them, not even the most successful entrepreneurs in Africa, cannot afford the kind of massive undertaking that building a functioning transportation infrastructure (well graded and MAINTAINED!!! roads, safety features, some education and initial investment in care and maintenance of vehicles, etc).  There isn’t much that I trust government to do, especially to do well, but transportation infrastructure is one of those things I’d allow them to tackle (no, this is not a statement of faith that the government will manage the project well, but sometimes there just aren’t viable alternatives).  I would, however, say that CJ was limited in her thinking.  We use highways a lot in this country, but also railroads and rivers.  Rivers aren’t really an option in Africa, and frankly, I’m not sure how viable railroads and roads are either.  Africa is HUGE: about 30.2 million km² (11.7 million sq mi) including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of the Earth’s total surface area and 20.4% of the total land area.  As a commonly cited example, Darfur, 1 single region in Sudan, is the size of France.  That is a lot of roadway to build, through practically unpopulated regions, traversing deserts, jungles, and grasslands with lurking lions.  I don’t think the world has that much goodwill.

Microfinancing Thoughts

A couple of posts at Marginal Revolution last month got me thinking about microfinance. Tyler Cowen referred to a post by Ryan Hahn at the World Bank’s Private Sector Development Blog (more blog reading, woo!) about the risk associated with microfinance loans. He also refers to his article with Karol Boudreaux in the Winter 2008 Wilson Quarterly. I’ve only formally studied microfinance in school, but I’ve tried to keep my eye on developments in the field (How to Change the World, the story of Ashoka, makes very good reading).

Next Week’s IR Events (7.21-7.27)

Addicted? Assessing India’s Growing Dependence on Energy Resources Abroad
7.22.08
330-530 PM
RSVPs NOT required.  More information available online.

U.S.-Singaporean Relations: ASEAN and the role of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Region with Amabassador Chan Heng Chee
7.23.08
630-830 PM
To attend, please register by responding to events@ypfp.org with your name and affiliation

7th Annual Devex DC Happy Hour
7.24.08
5-9 PM
Ultrabar, 911 F Street NW, Washington, DC

One More Next America Event Post

As promised, here are some further thoughts on the Next America project.  This was supposed to go up Monday, but due to computer and internet problems, I’m a little behind.

First, I just want to say that Colin Powell was awesome.  While his speech was good, it was basically like every other speech our generation hears – use technology, get to work, save the world.  I thought his best lines were his off-the-cuff self-deprecating asides.  He has a sense of humor and grace that I hope I achieve by the time I’m his age.

He did say a few things that I jotted down, not because they were new ideas, but because I liked his phrasing. He called the current times the era of wealth creation. This era will be powered by information revolution and absolutely dependent on transparency.