Regional Relationships and Development Infrastructure

Blogging Question: Assuming you are a development strategist in a developing country. Characterize the country and its situation. On that basis, how might you design a network-based development policy?

Govt 541: Research Methods

Another class I really love is my Research Methods class. It is, more or less, a class on how to apply the scientific method to political research.  I’ve ready plenty of such research, but I’ve never actually attempted to present my own work in such a manner, so it’s actually an enlightening, and challenging, class.  Our assignment is to design a research proposal that could be submitted as a grant proposal, should we find such an opportunity.  Luckily, it is just the proposal, and we are not actually responsible for doing the required research or data analysis, because that would probably take up far more time than I will have while in grad school (or at least w out the income of a grant).  My proposal is to study government intervention into 4 sectors of the Ugandan economy, as outlined below:

Research Question:
What explains the variation in success of four products/sectors of the Ugandan economy?

Hypotheses:
Infrastructure and government investments favored one industry over the other.

Alternative Hypotheses:
•    Collapse or growth of world markets
•    Environmental conditions in Uganda
•    Political or conflict situations in Uganda and/or surrounding countries
•    Economy and infrastucture of neighbors

Dependent Variable:
Economic success within industry (possible measures include sustained growth, profitability, share of market, share of employment)

Explanatory Variables:
•    Transportation systems
•    Communications systems
•    Government or donor subsidies, tariffs and other protectionist measures
•    Relationships with neighbors (diplomatic or trade)

Cases: oil, coffee, cut flowers, tourism industries in Uganda

Research Method: Analysis of sectors, variation between and over time

Potential Problems:
•    Data availability – some sectors are only just now being rebuilt or built up
•    Identifying and controlling for alternative variables or hypotheses (culture, geography, history) – some control comes from limiting study to one country
•    Impact of regional development, infrastructure

This one pager and the accompanying presentation 2 weeks ago went very well and I got a lot of good suggestions and generally very positive feedback.  I’m considering actually doing some of the research for this (but only on one sector) as the paper for my African Development class, but I’m not sure yet.  I’ll continue to post the work I do here as it develops.

CCTP 754

One of my favorite classes this semester is CCTP 754, Networks of International Development.  It’s not the only class I have that’s outside the government department (so is my African Development class), but it is the class furthest outside my area of expertise.  All of the other students are Comm, Culture and Tech (CCT) students so most of the time, we don’t even have the same vocabulary or frames of reference.  I think this serves to make the learning much more obvious and immediate (they might know about network theory, but I’ve actually already read two of the books on the syllabus).

The prof requires that we write a weekly blog post on a topic she’s chosen.  These topics are inspired by the reading or class discussion, but I enjoy them because she gives us sufficient freedom to explore subjects outside the class material (and topics I would likely never think to write of here).  Of the 3 posts I’ve written so far, 2 have been on IR topics (East African Custom Market and R2P) but one was about human evolution.

I’m still settling into my new schedule as a student so blogging more than once a week is probably still beyond my abilities at the moment, altho I hope that changes.  In the meantime, the CCTP blog is hidden behind Blackboard, so I promised a few people I would post my entries.  Here is the first one, with the rest to follow.

$1 Billion to Save the World

I was watching Numb3rs the other night – the most recent one, involving the super computer (don’t know what the episode is called) – and in it some crazy/evil DARPA woman offers Charlie 5 years and unlimited resources to try to change/save the world.  This for some reason reminded me of the last couple of episodes of the West Wing, in which CJ is offered $1 billion or so to save the world.  When asked what she would do with the money, she replies, build roads in Africa, because transportation is key to supporting movement of goods, labor migration, and the spread of ideas – all of that good stuff that capitalism requires.  As a thought exercise, I started daydreaming about what I would do with $1 billion (not that it will ever happen).

I agree with CJ on the issue of transportation, and the use of government/NGO/IGO money to build the infrastructure.  I think entrepreneurs are the lifeblood of capitalism and economic growth, but most of them, not even the most successful entrepreneurs in Africa, cannot afford the kind of massive undertaking that building a functioning transportation infrastructure (well graded and MAINTAINED!!! roads, safety features, some education and initial investment in care and maintenance of vehicles, etc).  There isn’t much that I trust government to do, especially to do well, but transportation infrastructure is one of those things I’d allow them to tackle (no, this is not a statement of faith that the government will manage the project well, but sometimes there just aren’t viable alternatives).  I would, however, say that CJ was limited in her thinking.  We use highways a lot in this country, but also railroads and rivers.  Rivers aren’t really an option in Africa, and frankly, I’m not sure how viable railroads and roads are either.  Africa is HUGE: about 30.2 million km² (11.7 million sq mi) including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of the Earth’s total surface area and 20.4% of the total land area.  As a commonly cited example, Darfur, 1 single region in Sudan, is the size of France.  That is a lot of roadway to build, through practically unpopulated regions, traversing deserts, jungles, and grasslands with lurking lions.  I don’t think the world has that much goodwill.

Thursday Cartoons Are Double the Trouble

Two that caught my eye:

Microfinancing Thoughts

A couple of posts at Marginal Revolution last month got me thinking about microfinance. Tyler Cowen referred to a post by Ryan Hahn at the World Bank’s Private Sector Development Blog (more blog reading, woo!) about the risk associated with microfinance loans. He also refers to his article with Karol Boudreaux in the Winter 2008 Wilson Quarterly. I’ve only formally studied microfinance in school, but I’ve tried to keep my eye on developments in the field (How to Change the World, the story of Ashoka, makes very good reading).

Next Week’s IR Events (7.14-7.20)

Transforming Development? The Role of Philanthropic Foundations in International Development Cooperation
7.14.08
12-2 PM
German Marshall Fund
RSVP by email to Asha Davis at adavis@gmfus.org

IISS Book Launch: ‘Political Islam in Turkey: Running West, Heading East?’
7.15.08
9-11 AM
RSVP by email to events-washington@iiss.org

McCain and Obama: Comparing Their Economic Platforms
7.15.08
12-2 PM
Cato Institute
More information available online

YPFP Speed Debates
7.16.08
6-8 PM
More information available online